Flutter Aims for 25% Market Share in Brazil by 2030

[Wolf32]

Macquarie began covering Flutter and forecasts that the NYSE-listed group could increase its online market share in Brazil by 150% over the next five years, rising from 10% to 25%.
According to senior gaming analyst Chad Beynon, Flutter Brazil’s growth will be driven by the Flutter Edge technology stack, known for its quick impact on market share in new markets. Brazil is expected to contribute another 1% to the group’s international market share growth between 2026 and 2029. Macquarie estimates the value of the business, which includes NSX Group, at approximately $1.3 billion (£1 billion/€1.2 billion).
Beynon indicated that this translates to roughly $12 per share in value and $9.5 in valuation creation. He praised Flutter for successfully managing risk in its mergers and acquisitions and for securing a leading position in the US through FanDuel. He also estimates Flutter holds a global market share of 16%, with 35% in the UK and Ireland, 33% in North America, 40% in Australia, and 5% in international markets. By 2030, Flutter is expected to achieve a global market share of around 20%.
In September, Flutter acquired a 56% stake in NSX for $350 million. The deal, which includes the prominent Brazilian betting brand Betnacional, is expected to close by Q2 of 2025. Following the confirmation of the NSX deal, Flutter established its Flutter Brazil business.

Rob Coldrake, the CFO, mentioned:

We’re excited to take advantage of what we think is a really exciting market with a lot of opportunity.

Brazil’s legal betting launch is fast approaching, with a set date of 1 January 2025. Flutter was one of the earliest to apply for a license with the new betting regulator this summer. However, the sector has faced significant criticism following studies that suggest betting is severely affecting consumer spending and welfare.